Analysis
Performances
10870 Trading signals triggered since 02/01/2013
Average performance per trade: 15.7% for an average duration of 8.1 months.
3107 Megatrend signals triggered since 01/09/2011
Average performance per trade: 143.5% for an average duration of 30.0 months.
Tactical Europe Portfolio :
+13.1% since 01/01/2021,
performance (alpha) : +3.4% versus Stoxx600NR
performance (alpha) : +3.4% versus Stoxx600NR
Megatrend Europe Portfolio :
+3.6% since 01/01/2021,
performance (alpha) : -6% versus Stoxx600NR
performance (alpha) : -6% versus Stoxx600NR
Core US Portfolio :
+6.4% since 01/01/2021,
performance (alpha) : -4.5% versus S&P500
performance (alpha) : -4.5% versus S&P500
Trading signal split (stocks only)
- Enter Long : 57.3% of stocks with an « enter long » signal in process
- Enter short : 0.5% of stocks with an « enter short » signal in process
- No signal: 42.2% of stocks of which last signal is an « Exit Long » or « Exit Short »
The 5 best performances
Trades in process
Top 5 Trading Signals Europe
Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
CAP-DE
Encavis AG
2616%
03/06/2019
SINCH-SE
Sinch AB
1120%
21/01/2019
EVO-SE
Evolution Gaming Group AB
1099%
18/02/2019
NEL-NO
NEL ASA
529%
28/06/2018
CWR-GB
Ceres Power Holdings plc
524%
24/04/2019
Top 5 Megatrend Signals Europe
Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
EVO-SE
Evolution Gaming Group AB
7544%
04/05/2015
ILM1-DE
Medios AG
6900%
22/10/2014
SRT3-DE
Sartorius AG Pref
5000%
01/02/2012
HYQ-DE
Hypoport SE
4575%
15/11/2013
DIM-FR
Sartorius Stedim Biotech SA
4331%
29/02/2012
Top 5 Trading Signals US
Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
FIVN-US
Five9 Inc
2519%
30/11/2015
ENPH-US
Enphase Energy, Inc
2349%
02/11/2018
TSLA-US
Tesla Inc
858%
18/11/2019
DQ-US
Daqo New Energy Corp. Sponsored ADR
747%
05/12/2019
FUTU-US
Futu Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A
737%
01/06/2020
Top 5 Megatrend Signals US
Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
SHOP-US
Shopify Inc Class A
3870%
27/05/2016
NVDA-US
NVIDIA Corporation
3779%
22/10/2013
ENPH-US
Enphase Energy, Inc
2354%
10/05/2018
FIVN-US
Five9 Inc
2182%
26/01/2016
RGEN-US
Repligen Corporation
1973%
10/04/2013
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Market Analysis
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29/04/2021
Buy Signal on Adevinta (ADE-NO)
We had an Enter Long signal on April 29th 2021, triggered by our system on ADE -NO, Adevinta, the Norwegian internet/media company.
Adevinta is a € 10.5 Bn market company, which specializes in the distribution of online classified advertisements outside the Nordic countries (France, Spain, Brazil, Italy, Austria, Ireland, Hungary, Mexico, Chile, Belarus, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Morocco, Tunisia, the United Kingdom and Germany). In 2019, Schibsted group, spinned off Le Bon Coin which came under the control of a new entity called Adevinta which went public on April 10th, 2019. Adevinta announced the acquisition of eBay Classifieds Group, the classifieds branch of eBay for € 8 bn in July 2020.
Besides Leboncoin, Adevinta owns many brands such as Paycar, L’argus in France, or Grupo AZ in Brazil and become the world leader in online classified business after the Ebay's classified unit acquisition. It is expected to post a revenue of €1.5 Bn in 2021 and €1.85 Bn in 2022 coupled with an operating margin of 25% and 30%. The EPS growth is expected to grow by 60% in 2022 and by 30% in 2023.
Adevinta is a quality growth business with strong positionning as it owns the best brands in the classified business.
Short term catalyst : Acquisitions, Ebay classified arms integration.
This signal looks consistent with the Major Bullish Trend in the European Internet / media sector.
Adevinta is a € 10.5 Bn market company, which specializes in the distribution of online classified advertisements outside the Nordic countries (France, Spain, Brazil, Italy, Austria, Ireland, Hungary, Mexico, Chile, Belarus, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Morocco, Tunisia, the United Kingdom and Germany). In 2019, Schibsted group, spinned off Le Bon Coin which came under the control of a new entity called Adevinta which went public on April 10th, 2019. Adevinta announced the acquisition of eBay Classifieds Group, the classifieds branch of eBay for € 8 bn in July 2020.
Besides Leboncoin, Adevinta owns many brands such as Paycar, L’argus in France, or Grupo AZ in Brazil and become the world leader in online classified business after the Ebay's classified unit acquisition. It is expected to post a revenue of €1.5 Bn in 2021 and €1.85 Bn in 2022 coupled with an operating margin of 25% and 30%. The EPS growth is expected to grow by 60% in 2022 and by 30% in 2023.
Adevinta is a quality growth business with strong positionning as it owns the best brands in the classified business.
Short term catalyst : Acquisitions, Ebay classified arms integration.
This signal looks consistent with the Major Bullish Trend in the European Internet / media sector.
Read more
28/04/2021
Buy Signal on Alstom (ALO-FR)
We've had an Enter Long signal on April 28th 2021, triggered by our system on ALO -FR, Alstom, the French roller stock manufacturer company.
Alstom is a € 17.6 Bn market and one of the world leading manufacturers of infrastructures for the rail transport sector. Revenue is derived from 4 segments :
1/ Rolling stocks (48%) including trains, tramways and locomotives;
2/ Signaling, information and control systems (18%)
3/Railway services (18%) including maintenance, modernization, management of spare parts, support and technical assistance services;
4/Railway infrastructures (16%) including infrastructures for the track laying, lines electrical power systems, electromechanical equipment, telecommunication devices and traveler information in station, terminals for automatic purchase of tickets, access to escalators, lifts for disabled, automatic landing doors on platforms, ventilation, air conditioning and lighting systems).
Alstom average revenue growth is c. 5% supported by megatrends such as urbanization and increasing traffic.
The company is expected to post a €15Bn revenue in 2022, including Bombardier coupled with a 6% operating margin that is expected to improve steadily towards the 8-10% zone. Alstom is looking to buy the Thales signaling division which is for sale, that could be a good fit for the company.
Short term catalyst : Thales Signaling Unit acquisition.
This signal looks consistent with the Major Bullish Trend in the European Industrial sector.
Alstom is a € 17.6 Bn market and one of the world leading manufacturers of infrastructures for the rail transport sector. Revenue is derived from 4 segments :
1/ Rolling stocks (48%) including trains, tramways and locomotives;
2/ Signaling, information and control systems (18%)
3/Railway services (18%) including maintenance, modernization, management of spare parts, support and technical assistance services;
4/Railway infrastructures (16%) including infrastructures for the track laying, lines electrical power systems, electromechanical equipment, telecommunication devices and traveler information in station, terminals for automatic purchase of tickets, access to escalators, lifts for disabled, automatic landing doors on platforms, ventilation, air conditioning and lighting systems).
Alstom average revenue growth is c. 5% supported by megatrends such as urbanization and increasing traffic.
The company is expected to post a €15Bn revenue in 2022, including Bombardier coupled with a 6% operating margin that is expected to improve steadily towards the 8-10% zone. Alstom is looking to buy the Thales signaling division which is for sale, that could be a good fit for the company.
Short term catalyst : Thales Signaling Unit acquisition.
This signal looks consistent with the Major Bullish Trend in the European Industrial sector.
Read more
27/04/2021
PhiAdvisor Value Sheet: Amplifon (AMP-IT)
We have had an enter Long signal since 06/22/2020 and added the stock to our Tactical Europe portfolio on 04/13/2021.
1st worldwide distributor (11% market share) of hearing aids and implants under the Amplifon, Beter Horen, Miracle Ear, Sonus brands, the turnover is divided between equipment sales (88%) and services / maintenance (12%). The group has a network of points of sale of 11,000 stores, 1/3 owned, 15% as affiliates, 12% as franchisees, and the remainder as corners. The geographic exposure is 70% in Europe / Africa / Middle East, 17% in the USA and the balance in Asia-Pacific.
The group remains 42% (59% of the voting rights) owned by the founding family and has benefited from the appetite for medtech affiliated stocks, bringing its multiple in PE valuation to 50x 2021 and 42x 2022. In EV / EBITDA, multiples are back below 20x this year and 17x next year.
The group has managed to almost triple its turnover in 4 years, doubling its profit while the debt will drop below 2x EBITDA at the end of 2021 vs. 3.5x in 2018. The acquisition of GAES, a Spanish group with of the largest reseller network in the world and the development in China have enabled Amplifon to change size and fully exploit economies of scale.
Short term catalyst : Continued external growth / Expansion in France and Germany / Savings linked to the integration of new networks.
Long term catalyst : Aging of the population / Miniaturization and digitization of hearing aid products / Development of third-party activities (connections with smartphone, TV or HIFI).
1st worldwide distributor (11% market share) of hearing aids and implants under the Amplifon, Beter Horen, Miracle Ear, Sonus brands, the turnover is divided between equipment sales (88%) and services / maintenance (12%). The group has a network of points of sale of 11,000 stores, 1/3 owned, 15% as affiliates, 12% as franchisees, and the remainder as corners. The geographic exposure is 70% in Europe / Africa / Middle East, 17% in the USA and the balance in Asia-Pacific.
The group remains 42% (59% of the voting rights) owned by the founding family and has benefited from the appetite for medtech affiliated stocks, bringing its multiple in PE valuation to 50x 2021 and 42x 2022. In EV / EBITDA, multiples are back below 20x this year and 17x next year.
The group has managed to almost triple its turnover in 4 years, doubling its profit while the debt will drop below 2x EBITDA at the end of 2021 vs. 3.5x in 2018. The acquisition of GAES, a Spanish group with of the largest reseller network in the world and the development in China have enabled Amplifon to change size and fully exploit economies of scale.
Short term catalyst : Continued external growth / Expansion in France and Germany / Savings linked to the integration of new networks.
Long term catalyst : Aging of the population / Miniaturization and digitization of hearing aid products / Development of third-party activities (connections with smartphone, TV or HIFI).
Read more
23/04/2021
PhiAdvisor Value Sheet: Aalberts Industries (AALB-NL)
We've had a long enter signal since 09. 11.2020, a signal Megatrend since 04.01.2021 and added the title to our Tactical Europe portfolio on 10.11.202.
Industrial holding in the purest sense of the word: Aalberts is active throughout the value chain of industrial flow ranging from pipes (tubes and valves) to flow control, through co-contained materials, instruments for measuring and controlling fluids. The group combines competitive advantage, margin expansion, strong FCF generation, disciplined allocation of capital employed and portfolio optimization.
As a result, the group increased its turnover by 5% per year between 2010 and 2020 and its dividend by 8%; the holding maintains an ambitious growth targets for it ROCE of more than 18%, considering current levels at 12.5% at the end of 2020 (pandemic impact) and 15% at the end of 2019.
The restructuring of the group (50m € of exceptional costs in 2020) will help to improve the conversion level of the FCF, already at 90% of EBITDA. Finally, the group has some freedom to pursue new acquisitions with net debt at 1.1x EBITDA when the convenants are at 3.
The PE multiples at 24x 2021 or 21x 2022 are certainly at a premium compared to the multiple historical means (13x) but this is less the case for its EV/EBITDA 2022 multiple that would fall below 10x .
Short term catalyst: Impact of restructuring / Demand growth in air conditioning systems / Growth of electric vehicles
Long term catalyst: Industrial relocation/ Development of LNG and hydrogen transport / Rise of CAPEX infrastructures in gas and water pipelines.
Industrial holding in the purest sense of the word: Aalberts is active throughout the value chain of industrial flow ranging from pipes (tubes and valves) to flow control, through co-contained materials, instruments for measuring and controlling fluids. The group combines competitive advantage, margin expansion, strong FCF generation, disciplined allocation of capital employed and portfolio optimization.
As a result, the group increased its turnover by 5% per year between 2010 and 2020 and its dividend by 8%; the holding maintains an ambitious growth targets for it ROCE of more than 18%, considering current levels at 12.5% at the end of 2020 (pandemic impact) and 15% at the end of 2019.
The restructuring of the group (50m € of exceptional costs in 2020) will help to improve the conversion level of the FCF, already at 90% of EBITDA. Finally, the group has some freedom to pursue new acquisitions with net debt at 1.1x EBITDA when the convenants are at 3.
The PE multiples at 24x 2021 or 21x 2022 are certainly at a premium compared to the multiple historical means (13x) but this is less the case for its EV/EBITDA 2022 multiple that would fall below 10x .
Short term catalyst: Impact of restructuring / Demand growth in air conditioning systems / Growth of electric vehicles
Long term catalyst: Industrial relocation/ Development of LNG and hydrogen transport / Rise of CAPEX infrastructures in gas and water pipelines.
Read more
22/04/2021
Buy Signal on Advance Auto Parts (AAP-US)
We had an Enter Long signal on April 22th 2021, triggered by our system on AAP -US, Adavance Auto Parts, the specialty retail company.
Advance Auto Parts is a $ 12.6 Bn market cap and an automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers (Professional) and do-it-yourself (DIY) customers, as well as independently owned operators. The Company's stores and branches offer a selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. It operates approximately 4,806 total stores and 170 branches primarily under the trade names: Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, Carquest and Worldpac. The Company offers products under categories, including parts & batteries, accessories & chemicals and engine maintenance.
Advance has been working to implement a number of long-term initiatives including a new management system for its four largest distribution centers, sharper pricing practices, and rising conversion of loyalty members to higher spend tiers. Advance’s operating margin in 2020 was 8.2% for a $10.2 bn revenue, but is expected to grow its operating profitability to 12% mid term given the rollout of the new initiatives. Management indicates it does not plan significant store openings until sales improve and the turnaround is further along, which shows their seriousness in developing their business model before expanding.
The biggest threat to AAP seems materialized by the online competition of Amazon and CarParts.com, a totally online US Auto Parts Network that is building out its distribution centers and is still not profitable, but could be serious competition down the road. Advance’s real advantage over online retailers is the services it provides, as it not only sell parts but will install light bulbs, batteries, and wipers.
Short term catalyst : Focus on expanding margins, online competition.
This signal looks consistent with the Major Bullish Trend in the US retail sector.
Advance Auto Parts is a $ 12.6 Bn market cap and an automotive aftermarket parts provider in North America, serving both professional installers (Professional) and do-it-yourself (DIY) customers, as well as independently owned operators. The Company's stores and branches offer a selection of brand name, original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and private label automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles and light and heavy duty trucks. It operates approximately 4,806 total stores and 170 branches primarily under the trade names: Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, Carquest and Worldpac. The Company offers products under categories, including parts & batteries, accessories & chemicals and engine maintenance.
Advance has been working to implement a number of long-term initiatives including a new management system for its four largest distribution centers, sharper pricing practices, and rising conversion of loyalty members to higher spend tiers. Advance’s operating margin in 2020 was 8.2% for a $10.2 bn revenue, but is expected to grow its operating profitability to 12% mid term given the rollout of the new initiatives. Management indicates it does not plan significant store openings until sales improve and the turnaround is further along, which shows their seriousness in developing their business model before expanding.
The biggest threat to AAP seems materialized by the online competition of Amazon and CarParts.com, a totally online US Auto Parts Network that is building out its distribution centers and is still not profitable, but could be serious competition down the road. Advance’s real advantage over online retailers is the services it provides, as it not only sell parts but will install light bulbs, batteries, and wipers.
Short term catalyst : Focus on expanding margins, online competition.
This signal looks consistent with the Major Bullish Trend in the US retail sector.
Read more