Performances
Tactical Europe Portfolio :
performance (alpha) : +4.1% versus Stoxx600NR
Megatrend Europe Portfolio :
performance (alpha) : -5.4% versus Stoxx600NR
Core US Portfolio :
performance (alpha) : -2.1% versus S&P500
Trading signal split (stocks only)
- Enter Long : 56.4% of stocks with an « enter long » signal in process
- Enter short : 0.6% of stocks with an « enter short » signal in process
- No signal: 43.1% of stocks of which last signal is an « Exit Long » or « Exit Short »
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Top 5 Trading Signals Europe
Top 5 Megatrend Signals Europe
Top 5 Trading Signals US
Top 5 Megatrend Signals US
Market Analysis
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Trading ideas
Haulotte is a € 210 Mn market cap and one of the world leaders in lifting equipment for people and loads. The group manufactures and markets a wide range of products, including aerial work platform and telehandler. The group's activity is split between 1/ equipment for lifting people: articulated boom lifts, scissor lifts, light self-propelled lifts, telescopic lifts, vertical masts, towed lifts and push-around products; 2/ telescopic handlers: compact ranges, large heights and large tonnages.
Haulotte is a cyclical company linked to France GDP growth, and the construction market. The company is expected to recover sharply in 2021, including a €500m revenue coupled with a €10m net profit. The operating margin should benefit from cost cutting actions and volume growth, to boost its operating leverage.
Short term catalyst : Reopening of the economy, reflation.
This signal looks consistent with the Industrial sector in Major Bullish Trend.
Airbus is a €72 Bn market cap and the leader in Europe and No. 2 worldwide in the aeronautics, space and defense industry. Revenues split between 3 main segments :
1/commercial aircraft (77% of sales), Airbus is world leader in aircraft with more than 100 seats;
2/defense and aerospace systems (15%) including military aircraft (particularly transport, maritime surveillance, anti-submarine fighter and air-to-air refueling aircraft), space equipment (orbital launchers, observation satellites and communications, turboprop aircraft, etc.), defense and security systems (missile systems, electronic and telecommunications systems, etc.). Airbus SE also offers aircraft training and maintenance services;
3/civil and military helicopters (8%).
Airbus posted a net loss of €1.1 bn in 2020, but a profit of €1.6 bn in Q4, nearly 60% above market expectations. At the end of September, Airbus had delivered only 341 planes and had 135 aircraft manufactured but not shipped to their customers due to the health crisis.In addition, the company managed to register 268 net orders in 2020, increasing its order book to 7,184 commercial aircraft, what secures the company’s revenue over a decade.
Among other positive, a pause in the « subsidies war » concerning Boeing and Airbus could be on the Agenda between the US and France.
Short term catalyst : Reopening of the world economy, pause in "tarifs war".
This signal looks consistent with the Aerospace & Defence sector in Major Bullish Trend.
Cancom is a €2.1 Bn market cap and a provider of IT infrastructure and services. The Company diversifies its activities into two business segments: Cloud Solutions and IT Solutions. The Cloud Solutions business segment mainly includes the Group's cloud services and shared managed services, including project-related hardware, software and cloud services. The IT Solutions business segment offers IT infrastructure and application support. The range of services offered by the Company's IT Solutions segment includes IT strategy consulting, project planning and implementation, systems integration, maintenance, training and other IT services, including the operation of full IT services. The company is mainly active in Germany and Austria.
Cancom is expected to post a revenue of c. €1.7Bn coupled with a c.€50mn net profit in 2020, corresponding to a +9% yoy top line growth and a +35% EPS growth. These trend looks set to continue in 2021, as cloud infrastructure & services growth was fueled by the « stay at home » theme, in the wake of the pandemic.
Short term catalyst : cloud infrastructure ramp up.
This signal looks consistent with the European Technology sector in Major Bullish Trend.
Coface is a €1.3 Bn market cap and one of the world's leaders in credit insurance. The group provides solutions to companies designed to protect them against the risk of financial default by their debtors, as part of the management of their accounts receivable, on both their domestic and export markets. Net sales break down includes credit insurance and related services (90%), surety insurance (4%), factoring services (3%); credit management services (2%). Revenue is achieved in Western Europe (20%), the Mediterranean and Africa (27%), Northern Europe (21%), Central Europe (10%), North America (9%), Asia/Pacific (8%), and Latin America (6%).
Natixis was the reference shareholder with 42% of the shares, but has just sold 29.5% of the capital to Arch Capital Group
Short term catalyst : Evolution of capital. Strong balance sheet and dividend
This signal looks consistent with the European Insurance sector, currently in Major Bullish Trend.
BNP is a €54.5bn market cap and France's largest banking group. Net banking product (NBP) is split between 1/retail banking (58%) including retail banking activity in France (6.8 million clients), in Belgium and Italy (2.7 million clients with BNL) international activities and specialized financial services activities. 2/finance and investment banking (27%) including consulting and capital market activities and financing. 3/ institutional and private management and insurance (15%): including asset management, private banking activity (No. 1 in France), real estate and on-line brokerage services, insurance and securities services.
In 2020, BNP Paribas' net income group share fell 13.5% to € 7.067 bn wellabove its guidance of a 15-20% decline. The decline is led by the sharp increase in the cost of risk due to the impact of Covid-19 on the economy. It jumped by 78.5% to €5.7 bn, but a first step of normalization is expected in 2021 after the peak of 2020. Net banking income, at € 44.3 bn, was almost stable yoy, in line with expectations.
Over the last three months of 2020, net income, adjusted for exceptional items, net profit exceeded expectations., FICC brokerage revenues jumped by 22.1% to € 1bn euros, driven by customer activity volumes and by market share gains.
BNP Paribas will propose to pay a €1.11 dividend per share in May 2021, payable in cash, i.e. a distribution of 21% of the 2020 result, the maximum resulting from the ECB's recommendation.
The additional restitution of 29% of the 2020 result is considered in the form of a share buyback as soon as the ECB's restriction recommendation is repealed by the end of September 2021. This year, BNP Paribas anticipates moderate revenue growth thanks to the gradual normalization of activity and cost stability.
Short term catalyst : Rate curve improvement, return to dividend payments and shares buy-back.
This signal looks consistent with the European Banking sector, currently in Major Bullish Trend.