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Analysis

Performances

10293 Trading signals triggered since 02/01/2013
Average performance per trade: 15.2% for an average duration of 8.0 months.
2951 Megatrend signals triggered since 01/09/2011
Average performance per trade: 138.3% for an average duration of 29.8 months.

Tactical Europe Portfolio :

+7.6% since 01/01/2021,
performance (alpha) : +4.1% versus Stoxx600NR

Megatrend Europe Portfolio :

-1.8% since 01/01/2021,
performance (alpha) : -5.4% versus Stoxx600NR

Core US Portfolio :

-1.8% since 01/01/2021,
performance (alpha) : -2.1% versus S&P500

Trading signal split (stocks only)

  • Enter Long : 56.4% of stocks with an « enter long » signal in process
  • Enter short : 0.6% of stocks with an « enter short » signal in process
  • No signal: 43.1% of stocks of which last signal is an « Exit Long » or « Exit Short »
The 5 best performances

Trades in process

Top 5 Trading Signals Europe

Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
SINCH-SE
Sinch AB
1327%
21/01/2019
EVO-SE
Evolution Gaming Group AB
713%
18/02/2019
NEL-NO
NEL ASA
615%
28/06/2018
CWR-GB
Ceres Power Holdings plc
484%
24/04/2019
SSO-NO
Scatec Solar ASA
442%
10/04/2018

Top 5 Megatrend Signals Europe

Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
ILM1-DE
Medios AG
7100%
22/10/2014
EVO-SE
Evolution Gaming Group AB
5082%
04/05/2015
HYQ-DE
Hypoport SE
4668%
15/11/2013
SRT3-DE
Sartorius AG Pref
4539%
01/02/2012
DIM-FR
Sartorius Stedim Biotech SA
3989%
29/02/2012

Top 5 Trading Signals US

Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
ENPH-US
Enphase Energy, Inc
2771%
02/11/2018
FIVN-US
Five9 Inc
2425%
30/11/2015
PLUG-US
Plug Power Inc
1514%
01/10/2019
DQ-US
Daqo New Energy Corp. Sponsored ADR
879%
05/12/2019
TSLA-US
Tesla Inc
783%
18/11/2019

Top 5 Megatrend Signals US

Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
SHOP-US
Shopify Inc Class A
3893%
27/05/2016
NVDA-US
NVIDIA Corporation
3243%
22/10/2013
ENPH-US
Enphase Energy, Inc
2777%
10/05/2018
FIVN-US
Five9 Inc
2100%
26/01/2016
RGEN-US
Repligen Corporation
1851%
10/04/2013
New

Market Analysis

03.
12/01/2021
Market phase: Overall bullish trend

US: Exposure to US Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Europe: Exposure to European Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Some profit taking emerged on high-flying overbought stocks and assets such as Tesla, renewables and cryptos, a move which in our view should not be seen so far as a lower appetite for risky assets but rather like an obvious consolidation after dramatic surges. The profit taking on both the US and European indices, were also coupled with a sell-off in US bonds with the 10Y rates now reaching 1.15% at a ten months high, with yield curve steepening because markets expects a big spending government However, higher rates are likely not so far an area of concern for equities right now, while the rising virus case remains the main concern short term as a third lockdown in Europe is not to be excluded, especially as the vaccination rate looks too slow to significantly impact the health situation in the coming weeks/months. As a result, segments linked to the Tourism industry such as Airlines and Hotels remains weak, while the "Stay at Home" theme including Cloud, Gaming, Medtechs and e-commerce is gaining momentum. The "quality growth" segment is also confirming progressively its short term bullish reversal, while some cyclicals (including Autos) are marking a pause. US broad indices are currently led by financials due to the yield curve steepening, while GAFAMs are loosing momentum and weighting negatively on the Nasdaq index but this is almost offset by the strong momentum in the semiconductors segment. Therefore, the strong momentum continues but sub-segments and themes looks more relevant than compartments such as "Value" or "Growth". This is another complex situation, wich implies more flexibility and full diversification.

Our Market Pressure Index now stands at 38/100 (+7), into the "bullish" zone.
The market participation/density is positive. There is 71% (+1) of major bullish configurations for the Stoxx600 and 79% (-1) for the S&P500, while major bearish trend configurations are 9% (+1) for the Stoxx600 and 4% (-1) for the S&P500. Therefore the density analysis reflects a positive momentum in Europe and in the US (spread now at +62 in Europe and +75 in the US). During risk-on/bullish market phases, the spread is expected to be > 30.
Read more
04.
11/12/2020
Market phase: Overall bullish trend

US: Exposure to US Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Europe: Exposure to European Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

There was no follow up on the wednesday's Tech sell off, as the Nasdaq100 ended slightly up in yesterday trading session, even if Apple was the only big Tech ending in the positive territory. The Technology segment's momentum is also currently fueled by a string of IPO's impressive kick off just like Airbnb, that surged by 144% yesterday. In Europe, the Stoxx600 ended lower led by Airlines and Autos due to increasing fears of a "no deal " between the UK and Europe that will impact negatively these sectors, in many ways, while some disruptions are also likely in other areas. However the fall in these cyclical sectors was almost offset by the rise in the Oil & Gas sector, boosted by oil prices rally that is gaining momentum, as Brent rise above $50 for the first time since March, as coronavirus vaccination rollouts is expected to boost demand for crude in 2021 and as Asia's economic recovery is making Chinese and Indian refiners acquire more oil. The relative momentum of WTI prices is strenghtening both relatively and in absolute terms, a positive for Oil stocks including shale oil and oilfield services company. Therefore the bull market continue, driven by its two pillars which remain the "value" segment catching up to its pre-covid level, and high growth mid-size companies in new energies or Technology. A "no deal" may lead to short term correction, that should in our view be an opportunity to jump in. If any correction occurs, we buy the dip.

Our Market Pressure Index now stands at 36/100 (=), into the "bullish" zone.
The market participation/density is positive. There is 56% (-1) of major bullish configurations for the Stoxx600 and 70% (-1) for the S&P500, while major bearish trend configurations are 13% (+1) for the Stoxx600 and 4% (=) for the S&P500. Therefore the density analysis reflects a positive momentum in Europe and in the US (spread now at +43 in Europe and +66 in the US). During risk-on/bullish market phases, the spread is expected to be > 30.
Read more
05.
03/12/2020
Market phase: Overall bullish trend

US: Exposure to US Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Europe: Exposure to European Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

The "value" compartment remains strong in both the US and Europe, with limited volatility on Banks and Oils & Gas -the strongest spots- despite the huge November performance while high betas growth stocks experienced bumpy course especially within the Hydrogen, Renewables or Battery segments (eg. NIO, Plug Power, Solaredge...). This points for another leg of rising of the "value" compartment, rather sooner than later as the catching up potential remains high in sectors such as Banks, Steel producers or Oil & Gas and may be favored by increasing 10Y rates and WTI prices and especially as the growing consensus is calling for a profit taking phase before another step of rerating. The Euro/USD reached another peak at 1.212, a positive for emerging markets such as Brazil, but a negative for Europe Industrials that is weighting negatively on the DAX30 while southern European indices which have a large banking components such as the IBEX35 are outperforming. We also notice the WTI bullish breaking out in process (45$ threshold), that if confirmed , should trigger a boost to Oil & Gas stocks, that is already the case for shale oil and services stocks. This may also have an impact on US long term rates (0.95%) that are getting closer to the 1% psychological level. We have a string of "Enter long" signals on Deep Cyclicals and Financials stocks for a few days, that also confirm the structural turnaround in the "value" theme.

Our Market Pressure Index now stands at 41/100 (=), into the "bullish" zone.
The market participation/density is positive. There is 53% (=) of major bullish configurations for the Stoxx600 and 70% (=) for the S&P500, while major bearish trend configurations are 11% (=) for the Stoxx600 and 5% (=) for the S&P500. Therefore the density analysis reflects a positive momentum in Europe and in the US (spread now at +42 in Europe and +65 in the US). During risk-on/bullish market phases, the spread is expected to be > 30.
Read more

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