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Analysis

Performances

10870 Trading signals triggered since 02/01/2013
Average performance per trade: 15.7% for an average duration of 8.1 months.
3107 Megatrend signals triggered since 01/09/2011
Average performance per trade: 143.5% for an average duration of 30.0 months.

Tactical Europe Portfolio :

+13.1% since 01/01/2021,
performance (alpha) : +3.4% versus Stoxx600NR

Megatrend Europe Portfolio :

+3.6% since 01/01/2021,
performance (alpha) : -6% versus Stoxx600NR

Core US Portfolio :

+6.4% since 01/01/2021,
performance (alpha) : -4.5% versus S&P500

Trading signal split (stocks only)

  • Enter Long : 57.3% of stocks with an « enter long » signal in process
  • Enter short : 0.5% of stocks with an « enter short » signal in process
  • No signal: 42.2% of stocks of which last signal is an « Exit Long » or « Exit Short »
The 5 best performances

Trades in process

Top 5 Trading Signals Europe

Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
CAP-DE
Encavis AG
2616%
03/06/2019
SINCH-SE
Sinch AB
1120%
21/01/2019
EVO-SE
Evolution Gaming Group AB
1099%
18/02/2019
NEL-NO
NEL ASA
529%
28/06/2018
CWR-GB
Ceres Power Holdings plc
524%
24/04/2019

Top 5 Megatrend Signals Europe

Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
EVO-SE
Evolution Gaming Group AB
7544%
04/05/2015
ILM1-DE
Medios AG
6900%
22/10/2014
SRT3-DE
Sartorius AG Pref
5000%
01/02/2012
HYQ-DE
Hypoport SE
4575%
15/11/2013
DIM-FR
Sartorius Stedim Biotech SA
4331%
29/02/2012

Top 5 Trading Signals US

Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
FIVN-US
Five9 Inc
2519%
30/11/2015
ENPH-US
Enphase Energy, Inc
2349%
02/11/2018
TSLA-US
Tesla Inc
858%
18/11/2019
DQ-US
Daqo New Energy Corp. Sponsored ADR
747%
05/12/2019
FUTU-US
Futu Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A
737%
01/06/2020

Top 5 Megatrend Signals US

Ticker
Instrument
Performance
Since
SHOP-US
Shopify Inc Class A
3870%
27/05/2016
NVDA-US
NVIDIA Corporation
3779%
22/10/2013
ENPH-US
Enphase Energy, Inc
2354%
10/05/2018
FIVN-US
Five9 Inc
2182%
26/01/2016
RGEN-US
Repligen Corporation
1973%
10/04/2013
New

Market Analysis

01.
15/04/2021
Market phase: Overall bullish trend

US: Exposure to US Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Europe: Exposure to European Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)


US indices closed mixed in yesterday trading session, with S&P500 falling despite stellar Big Banks results and the successfull Coinbase IPO as profit taking took place on the Technology sector with the Nasdaq down by 1% led by GAFAMs, Internet and Semiconductors sectors. WTI prices rose by c. 5%, the largest gain in a month, after weekly US data showed a surprisingly large drop in crude stockpiles likely due to weaker production from the Permian shale basin that once flooded the market. Therefore it was definitely a cyclical/Financial led trading session in the US. In Europe, there was a marked rebound in re-opening stocks that looks like the last "value" segment, as markets reassessed the J&J news, that could eventually have a minor impact on the vaccine rolling out as Pfizer is expected to increase deliveries dramatically, and as the J&J and Astra Zeneca vaccines should still be injected to people above 55, except in Denmark. The weak spot were defensive sectors in Europe, as the cyclical/value bounced back led by Basic Resources , Oil & Gas and Banks led by a weaker USD after inflation data calms tapering fears. There is currently no more clear driver in the markets, with almost all sectors and stocks in upward trend and alternance between themes on a daily basis. US 10 year rates remain stable near the 1.65% level, while the VIX remain at around 17 close to its lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic. The reopening stocks looks like the possible next trading opportunity to monitor, as it is still far from peak and showing relative strenght despite adverse conditions.

Our Market Pressure Index now stands at 35/100 (-1), still into the "bullish" zone.

The market participation/density is positive. There is 81% (=) of major bullish configurations for the Stoxx600 and 89% (=) for the S&P500, while major bearish trend configurations are 4% (=) for the Stoxx600 and 2% (=) for the S&P500. Therefore the density analysis reflects a positive momentum in Europe and in the US (spread now at +77 in Europe and +87 in the US). During risk-on/bullish market phases, the spread is expected to be > 30.
Read more
02.
22/03/2021
Market phase: Overall bullish trend

US: Exposure to US Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Europe: Exposure to European Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)


Main US indices ended the week lower, amid pressure on WTI prices (-6%) that led to profit taking on the Oil & Gas equity sector, as well as much of the « Value » compartment including Cyclical and Financial sectors while the Defensive segment was the strong spot including Consumer Staples, Healthcare services and the Media sector. The Technology sector was more or less in line with the indices, marking a pause after 5 weeks of underperformance versus cyclical and « value » sectors, and showing relative strenght in some segments such as Biotechnologies and Semiconductors. The week was marked by a 15 bp rise in long US rates (reaching 1.75%), that was played down by Powel’s FED comments that there is no tapering in sight despite the higher yields. The strenght of the Defensive sectors, and the stabilization of the Technology segment coupled with a start of profit taking on the "value " side should be monitored closely as it could correspond to early signals of another rotation towards Growth and Defensive compartments, especially as Q1 corporate earning season will start in 3 weeks, and as long rates are now close to their pre-covid level and could also mark a pause. We favor a balanced approach, with partial profit taking on some "value" segments such as Oil & Gas and Basic Resources, while adding some Defensive and Semiconductors. Overall market conditions remain favorable to equities, with a Market Pressure Index standing at 35/100.

Our Market Pressure Index now stands at 35/100 (=), into the "bullish" zone.
The market participation/density is positive. There is 76% (-1) of major bullish configurations for the Stoxx600 and 85% (=) for the S&P500, while major bearish trend configurations are 6% (=) for the Stoxx600 and 1% (-1) for the S&P500. Therefore the density analysis reflects a positive momentum in Europe and in the US (spread now at +70 in Europe and +84 in the US). During risk-on/bullish market phases, the spread is expected to be > 30.
Read more
05.
12/01/2021
Market phase: Overall bullish trend

US: Exposure to US Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Europe: Exposure to European Equity markets 100% / Cash 0% (unchanged)

Some profit taking emerged on high-flying overbought stocks and assets such as Tesla, renewables and cryptos, a move which in our view should not be seen so far as a lower appetite for risky assets but rather like an obvious consolidation after dramatic surges. The profit taking on both the US and European indices, were also coupled with a sell-off in US bonds with the 10Y rates now reaching 1.15% at a ten months high, with yield curve steepening because markets expects a big spending government However, higher rates are likely not so far an area of concern for equities right now, while the rising virus case remains the main concern short term as a third lockdown in Europe is not to be excluded, especially as the vaccination rate looks too slow to significantly impact the health situation in the coming weeks/months. As a result, segments linked to the Tourism industry such as Airlines and Hotels remains weak, while the "Stay at Home" theme including Cloud, Gaming, Medtechs and e-commerce is gaining momentum. The "quality growth" segment is also confirming progressively its short term bullish reversal, while some cyclicals (including Autos) are marking a pause. US broad indices are currently led by financials due to the yield curve steepening, while GAFAMs are loosing momentum and weighting negatively on the Nasdaq index but this is almost offset by the strong momentum in the semiconductors segment. Therefore, the strong momentum continues but sub-segments and themes looks more relevant than compartments such as "Value" or "Growth". This is another complex situation, wich implies more flexibility and full diversification.

Our Market Pressure Index now stands at 38/100 (+7), into the "bullish" zone.
The market participation/density is positive. There is 71% (+1) of major bullish configurations for the Stoxx600 and 79% (-1) for the S&P500, while major bearish trend configurations are 9% (+1) for the Stoxx600 and 4% (-1) for the S&P500. Therefore the density analysis reflects a positive momentum in Europe and in the US (spread now at +62 in Europe and +75 in the US). During risk-on/bullish market phases, the spread is expected to be > 30.
Read more

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